Iraqi oil exports dip for 4th consecutive month in Dec. 2024
Shafaq News/ Iraqi seaborne oil exports dropped for the fourth consecutive month in December 2024, according to data from Iraq's Gulf loading terminals obtained by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Total exports amounted to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, a 9.7% decrease from August 2024, with China and India accounting for the majority of Iraqi crude oil.
Chinese imports of Medium Iraqi crude mainly increased in the second half of 2024, fluctuating throughout the year with a low of 865,000 bpd in February and a high of 1.36 million bpd in August.
In 2024, Iraq became the fourth-largest crude oil supplier to China, following Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia. Market sources reported to Commodity Insights that Malaysian crude is largely Iranian.
India, the second-largest market for Iraqi exports, is likely to diversify its crude sources away from its largest supplier, Russia. Iraqi export flows to India remained stable throughout 2024, showing an almost equal split between medium and heavy Iraqi crude grades.
Indian traders, state-owned oil companies, and private refineries in China began seeking alternative supplies, including from the Middle East, where prices rose in the first week of January 2025.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the differential for Iraqi Basrah Medium crude against the official selling price (OSP) Mo01 at $3.90 per barrel on January 17, the highest level since March 2022, up from -50 cents per barrel on January 9, the day before the US announced sanctions.
Iraqi Basrah Heavy crude saw similar gains, trading sharply higher at $4.05 per barrel on January 17. Both fell slightly below $4 per barrel on January 21.
The recent sanctions may point to a larger market for Iraqi crude in China and India in the first half of 2025, but Iraq's production is tied to its OPEC+ quota of 3.89 million bpd, and it has regularly faced accusations of overproduction.
In December 2024, the second-largest producer in OPEC pumped 4.07 million bpd, according to the latest Platts OPEC+ survey by Commodity Insights.
