Shafaq News/ On Feb. 2, explosive-laden drones reportedly launched from Iraq targeted the United Arab Emirates (UAE) capital Abu Dhabi. A shadowy Iraqi group called Awliyat al-Waad al-Haq, the True Promise Brigades, claimed responsibility, saying the attack was revenge for the UAE's policies in Yemen. Emirati air defenses successfully intercepted the drones before they could cause any casualties or damage.
That wasn't the first reported militia drone attack from Iraq against a regional country. A Jan. 23, 2021, drone attack against Saudi Arabia was believed to have come from Iraq. An anonymous militia official told the Associated Press that the drones used in the attack came "in parts from Iran and were assembled in Iraq, and were launched from Iraq."
During clashes between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip last May, then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed, "Iran sent an armed UAV (drone) into Israel from Iraq or Syria."
In August 2018, Reuters reported that Iran supplied its militia proxies in Iraq with short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and gave these groups the know-how to manufacture these missiles locally. The missiles also had the range to threaten either Saudi Arabia or Israel if deployed to western or southern Iraq.
These incidents seemingly suggest that Iraq is at increased risk of having its territory used by non-state actors to launch drone or missile attacks against regional countries.
Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the powerful Sadrist Movement that won the most parliamentary seats in Iraq's last parliamentary elections in October, warned what he called "outlaw groups" from using Iraqi territory as a "launching pad for aggression against neighboring countries and regional countries".
Most Iraqis also oppose having their country's territory used for such purposes.
"While Iran certainly would like to use Iraq as a base of operations for its proxies to operate regionally, there is a very strong sentiment on the part of the Iraqi people to prevent that from happening," C. Anthony Pfaff, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative, told me.
"That sentiment, in fact, played a significant role in the last election where not only did nationalists associated with Sadr gain significantly, parties associated with Iran lost," he said. "So, should they do that at scale, at least, there could be a significant backlash. So while I wouldn't rule it out, I think there are limits to what the Iranians can do."
Nevertheless, Pfaff noted that context matters. While small-scale militia attacks against U.S. forces are not likely to attract very much attention, attacks targeting neighboring countries "like the ones launched against Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Yemen, would be a different matter."
"Iraqis do not want to be dragged into a regional conflict," he said.
Pfaff doubts that Iran or its proxy militias would be able to fire SRBMs out of Iraq.
"They can shoot them out of Yemen because the Houthis consider themselves at war with Saudi Arabia and the UAE," he said. "Iraqis do not want to be at war with anyone, so anything the Iranians do to drag them into one will probably be met with opposition."
The extent of the threat posed by Iran and its proxies is "hard to tell" in Pfaff's view. He noted that attacks to date have done "little to coerce Saudi Arabia or the UAE from continuing to support their partners in Yemen."
"This point doesn't mean Iran won't try, of course, but doing so would present the United States and its partners the opportunity to take stronger measures against Iran as well as further isolate it from the international community," he said.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, believes that Iran is "clearly responsible" for these attacks.
"What we call the militias – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Hashd al-Shaabi (also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces) in Iraq, the various Hezballah clones and the NDF (National Defence Forces) in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen – are integrated and organic components of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)," he told me.
Orton says attacks like the Feb. 2 one most likely had Tehran's authorization and blessing.
"These groups often refer smaller tactical and personnel decisions to the center, so any novel and/or escalatory attack is not contemplated unless Tehran orders it," he said. "The timing, therefore, of the attack on the UAE was driven by Iran's anger over the visit of Israel's President, not anything to do with Iraq (assuming the attack did come from Iraq)."
He also pointed out that the drones used in the attack were likely assembled in Iraq with Iran-supplied parts, as was reportedly the case in the above-mentioned Jan. 23, 2021, attack against Riyadh.
"The assembly of the attack components in Iraq would tally with what Tehran has been doing for a while, namely spreading the IRGC production capacity among the various departments in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen; it is much more difficult for Israel or anyone else to intercept the shipments of parts that are then assembled locally, as opposed to shipping missiles, which proved to be riskier," he said.
Orton also believes it's "pointless" to hope that the Iraqi government can prevent such attacks since "the balance of power is severely against it."
"Over time, Iran will build up its various theatres in pursuit of its Revolutionary goals, to eliminate Israel and displace the Gulf monarchies with Islamic Republics," he said.
"Those goals are unlikely to be achieved any time soon, but the threat to population centers in all these countries from more accurate missiles and drones coming from more directions is likely to be a feature of life moving forward."
William Wechsler, the Senior Director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, also anticipates a similarly dire outcome.
"I do think that Iraq is definitely at great risk of becoming a launching pad for non-state entities launching precision weapons across borders to target civilians," he told me.
"Such attacks are central to Iranian policy — and is a technique that no other country in the world uses," he said.
"Iran provides such capabilities to its non-state proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen — why would Iraq be any different?"
