Iraqi silence on Syrian developments: lingering concerns and anticipation

Shafaq News/ Iraq has remained largely silent on Syria’s political developments, including the recent appointment of Ahmad Al-Sharaa as transitional president. Analysts say Baghdad is likely to maintain this cautious approach as it closely monitors regional dynamics and the official Syrian response before determining its stance.
Since December 8, the day Bashar Al-Assad’s regime fell in Syria, Iraq has been cautious about engaging directly with Syria’s new government under Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s leadership. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani emphasized Iraq's basic position, which includes a commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity and support for an inclusive political process without interfering in its internal affairs. Thus far, Baghdad has only sent its intelligence chief, Hamid Al-Shatri, to head an official delegation.
The new Syrian administration has made a series of decisions, including disbanding all armed factions, the military, and security agencies from the previous regime, along with abrogating the constitution, dissolving the parliament, and dismantling the Baath Party, which had ruled the country for over five decades.
Al-Sharaa, in his latest speech, did not address Syria’s foreign relations. However, his Foreign Minister, Asaad Al-Shibani, stated that Syria’s foreign policy will aim to reduce tensions and establish peace in the Arab region, with Syria ultimately playing a "leading role in this effort."
Recently, the Syrian transitional government has also expressed its desire for peaceful relations with all countries, including Iraq, and hopes to "open a new chapter with everyone."
Bassem Suleiman, a Syrian writer and researcher, emphasized this sentiment in an interview with Shafaq News, noting that the new government in Damascus seeks balanced and peaceful relations with all countries "to focus on rebuilding Syria."
Suleiman pointed out that despite the involvement of foreign entities in Syria’s civil war against the regime, the government is eager to leave the past behind and start fresh relations.
He summarized the government’s approach as one aimed at "zeroing out problems with everyone," underscoring the goal of not creating conflicts with any party and vice versa. He also expressed hope that Iraq would open a new chapter with Syria for the sake of regional security.
It looks striking that Al-Sharaa, who initially gained prominence as "Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani," began his journey with Al-Qaeda in Iraq before moving to Syria in 2011 to establish "Jabhat Al-Nusra" as a branch of Al-Qaeda there. He remained in this position until 2016 when he officially split from Al-Qaeda and renamed his faction "Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham," which later became known as "Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham."
During his time in Iraq, Al-Jolani arrived shortly before the US invasion in 2003 and lived in Mosul for a period. He fought as a militant under the leadership of Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and his successors before being captured by US forces and imprisoned at Abu Ghraib, then moved to the largest of US’s two prisons in Iraq: Bucca and Cropper in Baghdad. Interestingly, the US later handed him over to the Iraqi government, which placed him in Camp Taji (Camp Cooke) before releasing him in 2008, marking his total incarceration at five years.
Al-Jolani has recently resumed using his real name, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, after being appointed Secretary-General of the "Military Operations Administration," which launched the "Deterring Aggression" campaign on November 27, 2024. The campaign quickly took control of Idlib and Aleppo, pushing into Hama and eventually overthrowing Assad’s regime, with Al-Sharaa emerging as a key ally of Iraq’s government.
At the time of Al-Assad’s fall, Iraq implemented strict security measures along its 620-kilometer border with Syria, deploying thousands of soldiers, police, and border guards.
It also constructed a concrete wall, trenches, barbed wire, and thermal cameras for surveillance, in addition to maintaining near-constant air patrols.
This security anxiety is reflected in Iraq's political stance. Contrary to Suleiman’s perspective, Iraq's Foreign Relations Committee member, Mukhtar Al-Musawi, believed Syria’s position remains unclear.
He asserted to Shafaq News that evaluating Syria's situation is complex and requires time, especially with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controlling a quarter of Syria’s territory and the potential for conflict between them and the new Syrian government.
Al-Musawi also questioned whether Al-Sharaa's orientation is religious or secular, pointing out his previous criticisms of the Iraqi government, which he has described as "failed due to sectarianism." This has led Al-Musawi to conclude that Iraq is currently "treading carefully" while awaiting official Syrian statements.
Dr. Ihsan Al-Shammari, a professor of strategic and international studies at the University of Baghdad and head of the Political Thinking Center, outlined several key factors shaping Iraq's official position towards Syria to date:
• Previous hostile statements from Al-Sudani's government regarding Al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani) and concerns over Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.
• Al-Sharaa's rise to power outside an electoral process.
• The unresolved issue of security coordination between Baghdad and Damascus, despite the presence of ISIS in northeastern Syria.
• How Al-Sharaa will handle relations with the SDF and the potential for clashes with the new Syrian government.
• The absence of an agreement on joint mechanisms for border control.
• Iraq's desire to avoid damaging its ties with Iran, which has experienced a rupture in its relations with Syria's new administration.
For these reasons, Al-Shammari saw no surprise in Iraq's continued cautious stance even after Al-Sharaa's appointment. However, he noted that Iraq has "welcomed the appointment" and will push for the completion of transitional phase requirements and the inclusion of various political factions in Syria's process.
In his inauguration speech as Syria's interim president, Al-Sharaa pledged to form an "inclusive transitional government that represents all Syrians."
Al-Shammari concluded that Iraq may eventually feel compelled to embrace Al-Sharaa's appointment within the broader international context of supporting Syria’s transition. However, he remained confident that Iraq would not fully engage with Syria's new situation due to "ongoing concerns."