Iraq’s November elections in crisis: Major political blocs withdraw

Shafaq News

The credibility of Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for November 11, is facing a deepening crisis as prominent political forces announce their withdrawal, citing structural corruption and an uncompetitive political environment.

Among the most significant departures are those of former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s al-Nasr (Victory) Coalition, which is currently a part of the National State Forces Alliance that held four seats in the Parliament, and the influential Sadrist bloc/Patriotic Shiite Movement (PSM) led by Moqtada al-Sadr, which held 73 seats and formed the largest bloc in the 328-member chamber before its 2022 resignation, a move that left Iraq’s legislature fractured and unable to form a majority government for nearly a year.

The al-Nasr Coalition, in a statement issued June 27, announced it would instead support the National State Forces Alliance. Speaking to Shafaq News, Aqeel al-Rudaini, spokesperson for the Coalition, disclosed the motives behind the decision. “The move was driven by several reasons, especially the political money dominating the electoral scene,” he stated, adding, “A party that refuses to exploit state funds simply cannot compete in this environment.”

Al-Rudaini revealed that the campaign financing expectations had become insurmountable. “Any candidate is expected to pay no less than one billion dinars (about $765,000) just to run.”

The Coalition’s decision was also due to the absence of financial and political tools that could enable a meaningful campaign. “But through this, we hope to contribute to correcting the course of the political process going forward.”

“We remain part of the National State Forces Alliance and may support some of its candidates,” he clarified, adding that “there is no alternative to the ballot box for forming the next Parliament and government.”

He called on the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) to urgently address the misuse of public resources and state institutions by ruling parties and candidates. Yet the Commission has faced repeated credibility challenges in recent cycles, with observers citing its limited enforcement powers and failure to prevent political parties from exploiting state-linked institutions and employees.

A Political Storm

The announcement drew swift attention across Iraq’s political spectrum. Independent MP Jawad al-Yasari described the move to Shafaq News as “surprising,” likening it to the PSM’s earlier departure from Parliament despite holding a commanding presence.

Al-Yasari attributed these decisions to the unethical conduct of certain dominant forces, which is “neither clean nor acceptable.” As a result, “even individual candidates are stepping back due to the existence of unfair competition.”

He went on to explain this conduct, warning that “there are credible reports of vote-buying and efforts by some factions to directly sway citizens through illicit means.”

Meanwhile, Munaf al-Moussawi, Head of the Baghdad Center for Strategic Studies, told our agency that the al-Nasr Coalition’s move was also driven by “a clear realization that there is no serious path toward reform within the current political system.”

Al-Moussawi noted that Moqtada al-Sadr has, on multiple occasions, explained the reasoning behind his own exit, most recently in his response to a letter from the President of the Republic urging reconsideration. In that response, al-Sadr reiterated that “the presence of corrupt actors controlling all levers of power, along with the notorious Electoral Law and the absence of real international oversight, renders transparent elections impossible.”

The law in question was overhauled in 2020 following mass protests, introducing a single non-transferable vote system across multiple electoral districts to empower independents. However, in 2023, Parliament amended the law to reinstate a modified Sainte-Laguë proportional system, a method widely criticized for favoring large parties and weakening the electoral prospects of independents and emerging blocs.

The expert emphasized that these concerns are no longer whispered behind closed doors. “There is now open talk about the role of moneyed interests, vote buying, and the trading of loyalty for influence.”

He warned that under these conditions, the November elections, if held on schedule, will “lack transparency, integrity, and credibility,” potentially reproducing the same entrenched ruling elite. That, he said, is exactly why the PSM stepped away from the process: “Their reform project cannot be implemented in a system that simply regenerates the same power structures.”

In light of these developments, al-Moussawi revealed that “certain blocs may push to delay the vote in hopes of persuading the PSM and other key players to return to the fold,” which reflects a “growing recognition that a highly fragmented electoral field could undermine Parliament’s legitimacy.”

But al-Moussawi also issued a stark warning: “If the current system persists without fundamental reform, it risks total collapse.”

Notably, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court, the only body authorized to certify election results and adjudicate constitutional disputes, has been hampered by vacant seats and stalled judicial appointments, as several members have retired, died or resigned recently, and efforts to name replacements have been delayed by political divisions.

This legal void threatens to delay the ratification of election outcomes or obstruct rulings on potential fraud claims, raising the specter of a post-election constitutional crisis.

A Wider Crisis

The concern is not limited to the Sadrist or al-Nasr camps. In May, the National Line (Al-Khat Al-Watani) Bloc also pulled out of the elections due to a lack of “any meaningful reform agenda” or electoral programs capable of “addressing the roots of the crisis that has paralyzed the state since 2003.”

More recently, in early June, Manhal al-Ghariri, Secretary-General of the Tawazon Party and a prominent political activist, urged party leaders to consider withdrawing as well.

Speaking to Shafaq News, al-Ghariri warned that the elections have become merely “a formal process that re-entrenches the same failed political class, due to the grip of major parties on financial and state resources.”

Multiple political insiders have previously revealed to our agency how dominant parties have already begun deploying vast sums to shape the electoral field, confirming that political entities are offering large amounts to both candidates and voters, with some reportedly spending billions on individuals who possess tribal or political influence to secure loyalty and turnout.

Observers noted that this scale of financial dominance has reached levels that smaller or reform-oriented parties cannot match. Even those with external backing or regional alliances find themselves unable to compete against entrenched domestic players with access to public resources and institutional levers, such as state employees and special voting* blocs.

The Way Forward

With the parliamentary elections still officially scheduled for November 11, and electoral campaigning expected to begin shortly before that, the field is narrowing fast. If more major blocs step aside, or if the environment remains structurally skewed, Iraq’s next Parliament may be shaped not by representative competition, but by the absence of it.

The systemic implications are stark: as confidence erodes in the mechanisms of democratic renewal, the threat of public disengagement grows, further weakening state legitimacy in a country already struggling with economic hardship, foreign interference, and post-conflict instability.

Whether the November vote proceeds on schedule or is delayed, the central challenge remains: without credible reform, transparent oversight, and an equitable electoral playing field, Iraq risks entrenching the very crises it seeks to overcome.

*Iraq’s special voting system, which allows security forces and displaced persons to vote ahead of the general population, has allegedly been repeatedly exploited by dominant parties to mobilize bloc voting under pressure or oversight.

Written and edited by Shafaq News staff