Two days before Trump’s inauguration, Iraq faces transitional phase

Shafaq News/ Iraq is bracing for a transitional period that could bring significant political, security, and economic changes. The next days could prove crucial in shaping Iraq’s relationship with the United States, as Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated as president on January 20.

Observers believe Iraq will be a key focal point for US attention, given that it remains the last major region under Iran’s sphere of influence.

Iraq finds itself in a delicate position, unable to choose between a path of growth and sustainable development with the US or remaining trapped in an ongoing cycle of crises with Iran. Many analysts agree that Baghdad has no room to remain neutral or sit on the fence between the two powers.

Necessity of US Friendship For Iraq

For various reasons, Iraq’s alliance with the US appears inevitable. The critical among these are Iraq’s financial troubles, American support, and the protection and backing the country has received since 2003.

Political analyst Ramadan Al-Badran, speaking to Shafaq News, argues that the incoming US president will take a tough stance on Iran and its allies. Going further, Al-Badran suggests that Trump “will directly and seriously target Iran this time,” pointing to the evolving situation in the Middle East and the collapse of Iranian pressure tactics globally.

He notes that Iran’s position has weakened in confrontations and has not yet met the international demands to cease interference in other nation’s affairs, halt its military activities, and curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Al-Badran adds that Trump will revisit issues that were pivotal during his first term. He believes Trump seeks a stable and economically prosperous Middle East, looking to establish alternative funding and production sources outside of China to support both the US and Western economies.

Given the centrality of economic concerns to Trump, Al-Badran warns that any opposition to economic integration with the US will be seen as contrary to Washington’s interests.

"Iraq has no choice but to align with the US," he says, emphasizing that the country risks losing American friendship if it attempts to remain neutral between the US and Iran.

Transitional Phase: Expected Change Ahead

Strategic expert Ahmed Al-Sharifi, in an interview with Shafaq News, believes that Trump’s policy will adapt according to shifting regional balances.

Al-Sharifi points to international settlements between Russia and the US, as evidenced by the transfer of control between Bashar Al-Assad’s regime and factions now ruling Syria. He also cites developments in Lebanon, including the election of a new president and prime minister, and the Gaza agreement, all as part of what he calls “local settlements influenced by regional and international diplomacy.”

Al-Sharifi warns that Iraq will go through a transitional phase that contradicts its current political trajectory with Trump’s agenda.

He predicts Trump will push for sweeping changes, which will rely on the reactions of both sides to “remove a political group that no longer satisfies the US, which has been the main sponsor of Iraq’s political project, with the United Nations overseeing political changes in Iraq.”

Al-Sharifi expects Trump to remove elements of the ruling class that are loyal to or connected with Iran, given that “it is time to settle the matter according to regional and international balances.”

He notes that Iraqi politicians no longer have the freedom to choose between a path of prosperity with the US or remaining mired in regional crises.

New US Approach: Iraq as the Main Front

International relations professor Firas Elias believes Trump’s policy toward Iraq will follow new paths that differ from his first term, aiming to reset security, political, and economic trajectories. Elias tells Shafaq News that the US is seeking to establish a safety buffer between Iraq and Iran, especially in security and economic fields.

Washington also aims to “liberate Iraq’s foreign policy from the constraints it has faced in the past,” particularly in terms of reintegrating Iraq into the emerging regional framework following the Gaza ceasefire agreement.

Elias notes that the past year has seen efforts to contain Iran in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, and believes Iraq will be the primary battleground for US interests, as it remains the only area where Iran holds strong influence. The professor also suggests that the US will insist on addressing armed factions in Iraq and developing new mechanisms to deal with their weapons, anticipating that the conditional ceasefire used in Trump’s first term will no longer be acceptable.

The US needs to create political and security stability in Iraq to secure the Syrian theater and maintain regional balances that were achieved after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime.

Given Iraq’s central role in regional stability, Elias asserts that the Trump administration will take action to resolve Iraq’s internal issues in ways that will push Iran to adopt a more regionally and internationally acceptable approach.

Prominent Iraqi politician Mithal Al-Alusi sees Biden’s administration as having attempted to contain Iran through soft power, which Tehran exploited by allowing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to seize control of political, military, and governmental decisions in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

Al-Alusi argues that Trump, in contrast, opposes Iranian hegemony over Middle Eastern nations, predicting that his administration will support peace initiatives, including Israeli-Palestinian or Israeli-Saudi dialogues.

He points out that Washington and the West understand that Iranian influence in Iraq flows through the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). “There is no PMF without militias, and no armed terrorist threats in or outside Iraq, whether through drones or missiles, except via IRGC cells operating under the cover of these factions,” he explains.

The Iraqi politician states that during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei insisted on the PMF’s role as an Iraqi institution that should be supported, while also calling the US its “primary enemy” and encouraging armed factions to escalate actions against Washington.

Al-Alusi describes this as an “intelligent Iranian tactic” aimed at provoking Trump into targeting militia leaders, assuming that America would settle for such strikes and leave Iranian influence in Iraq intact. However, according to Al-Alusi, Iran fails to grasp that the US will not compromise on Iraq.

He concluded by urging the Iraqi government to adopt an independent national policy, warning that Al-Sudani’s government could face severe consequences if it continues to align with Iranian interests. “A new era for Iraq and the Middle East may begin on January 21, and those who fail to recognize this shift will pay a heavy price.”

Pressure and Uncertainty Ahead of Trump's Presidency

As Trump’s inauguration approaches, the world, particularly the Middle East, is watching closely. Predictions suggest that Washington will impose economic sanctions on Iran and continue to pressure the country to curb its influence, which could also place economic pressure on Iraq, according to Khaled Waleed, spokesman for the "Nazel Akhez Hakki"[working for my rights] democratic movement.

Waleed also tells Shafaq News that “there are rumors of potential targeting of militia leaders and political movements pushing for upcoming changes.” Additionally, concerns are growing within Iraq about a potential financial crisis, as voiced by several members of parliament.

He concludes that Iraq’s political future, especially regarding the fate of resistance factions and the PMF, is at a critical juncture, stressing that the government's assertion of the PMF as an official security institution only exacerbates the pressures from both regional and international forces on Iraq’s ruling class.