Iraq Is a Good Place to Start for an Iran-Saudi Dialogue, report says

Shafaq News / The American "World Politics Review" website monitored "the shift in regional dynamics" through the resumption of negotiations in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear deal and the direct talks hosted by Iraq between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The report said, “Diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran were cut in 2016 following Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric and the storming of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran by protesters in response.”

It added, “By virtue of geography, demographics and history, Saudi Arabia and Iran are almost inevitable rivals. But that rivalry tipped into outright hostility following the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the overthrow of the Shah”, pointing out, “Longstanding fears of the Islamic Republic’s early stated desire to export its revolution eventually gave way to more pragmatic engagement between Iran and its Arab neighbors. But the ouster of Tehran’s geopolitical enemies in Afghanistan and Iraq in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks created an environment that fueled Iranian ambitions and brought Iran into much more frequent and direct conflict with Saudi Arabia and the other five countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Furthermore, the report explained that in the post-9/11 era, Iran has increasingly turned to hard power to project its influence in the region’s conflicts through its much more effective use of non-state, hybrid and proxy actors. “Instead of limiting Iran’s opportunities to utilize its competitive advantages in such settings, the United States and its regional partners have instead provided Iran multiple opportunities to intervene in Arab affairs. Far from containing Iran’s unrealistic hopes for hegemony, efforts at containment have only spurred more far-reaching and damaging Iranian behavior in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.”

In The same context, it went on to say that the Gulf countries have long hoped that the United States would somehow rid them of their unwanted rival and simply “cut off the head of the snake,” as then-Saudi King Abdullah reportedly urged American officials to do in 2008, according to leaked U.S. diplomatic cables. “With the United States clearly signaling that it is now uninterested in expanding its military commitments in the Middle East, the possibility of that wish being fulfilled has faded. Instead, the region is in desperate need of serious dialogue and conflict mitigation. Direct Iran-Saudi talks would be an excellent place to start.”

Such talks, as by the report, would also make sense for Iraq, which continues to pay a huge cost due to the region’s instability. The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq upended the regional order and opened the door for Iranian interference in Iraqi affairs. “Iraq, of course, is linked to Iran in numerous ways and cannot afford to have hostile relations with its neighbor. Nor can it afford to allow regional hostilities to play out within its borders. Yet, the Iraqi state remains vulnerable to the whims of its patrons and partners, particularly the United States and Iran.”

Additionally, the report revealed the Trump administration often viewed Iraq through the prism of its rising tensions with Iran. That approach is destined to failure, as it misconstrues Iraqi interests and makes unrealistic demands of the Iraqi political class. It also increases the incentives for Iran to play the spoiler. While Iran continues to see a stable and non-threatening Iraq as in its long-term interests, it has long been willing to risk short-term instability to pursue more pressing priorities in its competition with the United States.

Iraq, as by the author, has the potential to help bridge current regional divides and establish a functional model of equilibrium. It is where the regional order was shattered, but because of its centrality, its demography and its existing relationships, it is also the most likely candidate to manage the countervailing pressures and sectarian polarization that have destabilized the Middle East over the past 15 years, the statement added.