IMF sees Iraq contraction before 2027 rebound

Shafaq News- Baghdad

Middle East and Central Asia growth is projected to fall to 0.7% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5% in 2027, with Iraq among the commodity producers expected to contract sharply this year, the International Monetary Fund said.

In its July World Economic Outlook update, the IMF grouped Iraq with Kuwait and Qatar as the producers most affected by disruptions to energy output and transport, linking the downturn to a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz than it assumed in April.

The Fund cut this year’s regional forecast by 1.2 percentage points and raised next year’s by 1.9 points, reflecting a deeper short-term hit and a larger expected rebound.

Saudi Arabia is expected to be less affected because of more diversified export routes, with growth projected at 1.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027.

Globally, the IMF projected growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, saying the outlook remains uneven and exposed to developments in the Middle East.