Shafaq news/ As the world approach of finding a vaccine for Covid-19, many are wondering when their lives can return to “normal,” that is, no more wearing masks, social distancing or working from home out of necessity.
Eradicating Covid-19 hinges in large part upon having a safe vaccine, which experts believe could be ready by early 2021.
But having a vaccine is just one step, it needs to be effective on a large enough percentage of the population, and enough people have to be willing to get it to truly end the pandemic.
So to find out just how effective and widely used a vaccine must be for the number of new infections per day to drop to zero, researchers used a computational model to simulate various scenarios.
The study showed that if 75% of the population gets a Covid-19 vaccine, it would need to be at least 80% effective to fully end the pandemic without any other measures.
To put this in perspective, the flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60%, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
But those numbers may be unlikely. According to White House advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, the hope is that there will be a vaccine that is at least 75% effective, though the Food and Drug Administration said in July it would authorize a Covid-19 vaccine that is at least 50% effective. According to CNBC
The good news is that a vaccine that has an efficacy rate between 60% and 80% could still have an impact on the pandemic, potentially reducing the need for protective measures, the study authors write.