Political landscape in Nineveh expected to remain unchanged

Shafaq News / Al-Rasd Center for Political and Strategic Studies forecasted on Friday that a significant shift in the political landscape of Nineveh Province is unlikely based on current data, unless there are abrupt changes within the political arena.

Mohammed Ghasoub Younis, the director of the center, stated to Shafaq News Agency, "Nineveh Province has a total of 29 seats, with 3 of them being reserved quotas. Therefore, any list formed in Nineveh would encompass no fewer than 52 candidates."

Younis observed, "Nineveh Province has lost its political cover since its liberation in 2017, and until now, those who control and dominate its political, economic, social, and administrative aspects are political blocs that will not allow the loss of this province in the upcoming elections."

According to the center, multiple parties have entered with more than one list, especially major parties and political blocs hailing from outside Nineveh. These could be termed as "seasonal parties" that emerge during elections and fade away after the results are announced. These parties have begun to establish headquarters in the province and attract citizens through financial enticements.

On this matter, Younis pointed out that "major parties in Nineveh province have established parties in the shadows under different names, some for the purpose of diluting votes and others to mislead citizens," noting that "some political blocs have armed followers who will be compelled to vote for their candidates exclusively, as was the case in 2021."

Regarding the potential election results in Nineveh, the head of the Observatory predicted that the Kurdistan Democratic Party list may secure 6 to 7 seats, while the list of Nineveh Governor Najm al-Jubouri along with Ahmad al-Jubouri could attain the second position. The "Decision for the Nation" list led by Osama al-Nujaifi and Thabet al-Abbasi might secure the third position. Additionally, the "Pride" list will compete for the fourth position, along with other lists, including Al-Azm.

Younis concluded by dismissing the possibility of significant changes in the political landscape of Nineveh, as long as the data indicates citizen apathy, particularly among the residents of Mosul, who remain unconvinced by the political process as a whole. However, it is expected that the tribes and clans on the outskirts will turn out in force to vote for their candidates.

Earlier, the Cabinet had decided to hold elections for provincial councils on December 18, more than 10 years after the previous round. Over 270 parties are expected to compete in the upcoming elections across 15 provinces, excluding the Kurdistan Region.

Elected provincial councils are responsible for selecting governors and executive officials for their respective provinces. These officials possess powers of dismissal, appointment, and approval of project plans according to the allocated budget from the central government in Baghdad, in accordance with the Iraqi Constitution in effect since 2005.