The World Bank: Iraq's economy is 'fragile' with +$152 Billion debt

Shafaq News / The World Bank has stated that Iraq's economy is fragile, and the country's debt has risen to $152 billion, highlighting that the Central Bank of Iraq's (CBI) auctions have diverted hard currency to the parallel market, leading to a decline in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar.

In its 'Renewed Pressures: Iraq's Recovery at Risk' reporte, the World Bank stated that "Iraq's economy is grappling with a recession in non-oil GDP, industries, and agriculture, coupled with rising inflation rates. The country lacks comprehensive structural reforms under its current government to bolster its economy beyond oil."

"The annual budget approved by the government authorities witnesses a significant increase in public expenditures by 59% compared to the previous year, constituting 74.3% of total expenditure. This will result in a substantial fiscal deficit of IQD 51.6 trillion (approximately $39.7 billion), representing 14.3% of general imports, more than half of the recent record reserves accumulated following the oil price surge."

Regarding CBI's policies in devaluing the local currency, the World Bank indicated that "the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar has led to overall and core inflation increase due to excessive reliance on imports amid weak domestic production, a gap exposed by the government's policies, further jeopardizing the country's fragile economy."

According to the World Bank, "Iraq's lack of income diversification due to successive chaotic government policies has led to a contraction of the local GDP by 1.1% in 2023, coupled with an increase in the country's public debt reaching 58.3%, up from 53.8% the previous year, totaling $152 billion, a $10 billion increase. The external debt amounts to $50 billion, while the internal debt is $102 billion. This means that the government authorities borrowed about $60 billion internally over the past three years, at an average rate of $15 billion annually, with annual interest on domestic debt amounting to 16% to 17% of the debt volume."

The bank also highlighted that "the economic prospects for Iraq's future remain subject to significant risks due to excessive reliance on oil, making it vulnerable to oil market shocks and global demand fluctuations, as evident from recent oil price declines. Additionally, driving fragility are key economic challenges like rampant corruption, inadequate service provision and infrastructure development, and security risks."

The World Bank further added, "The persistence of these policies by the government authorities will lead the country's budget to favor political parties that have hindered the wheel of development, causing significant imbalances despite two decades of claims that the war has ended.'