Oil could hit $200 as Trump threats rattle markets

Shafaq News- Washington/ Tehran

Oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates, analysts warn, as US threats against Iranian energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz tighten global supply.

Tamas Varga of PVM Energy said a ground offensive against Iran, expanded strikes on Gulf energy assets, or a full closure of Hormuz would sharply constrain flows, pushing prices toward extreme levels. Even a disruption of 10 million barrels per day would remove roughly three days of global supply each month.

US President Donald Trump raised tensions further, suggesting Washington could seize Iran’s Kharg Island, a key export hub, or destroy it if Tehran fails to reopen Hormuz and negotiations stall. Analysts say capturing the island would not grant control over Iranian oil but would cripple export capacity and drive prices higher.

The conflict has already disrupted shipments through Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and gas flows, amplifying volatility across energy markets. Even under a ceasefire, restoring supply chains could take months, with additional US deployments signaling prolonged instability.

The impact is feeding into inflation risks in Europe. Germany has moved to cap fuel price increases, while businesses signal further price hikes as energy costs rise.