Iraq's population boom: balancing growth and challenges for a sustainable future

Shafaq News/ Iraq experiences a profound demographic shift, with over a million births recorded annually and a high population growth rate.

According to the United Nations Population Division (UNPD), Iraq's population growth rate in 2023 stood at 2.27%, with the country's current population at 45.7 million. Projections suggest that this figure will more than double by the end of 2085.

Experts caution that this birth surge poses a complex and pressing challenge, urging the government to swiftly devise strategies to accommodate this substantial influx.

Tracking Population Growth

The Iraqi Ministry of Planning's estimates for 2023 reveal a population of 43.224 million, with a nearly equal gender distribution of 50.5% male and 49.5% female.

The official data showed a decrease in fertility rates from six to four children per woman compared to previous years, and the overall population growth rate has declined from 3.3% to 2.5%, as explained by ministry spokesperson Abdul Zahra Al-Hindawi.

Al-Hindawi clarified to Shafaq News Agency that "the 2.5% population increase does not indicate inflation or a population explosion. However, the continuous growth trend necessitates proactive measures to manage the steady rise in numbers and associated challenges."

In response to these demographic shifts, Al-Hindawi indicated that preparations are underway for Iraq's upcoming population and housing census scheduled for November 20, 2024.

"The Ministry of Planning is conducting a trial census in May, covering all governorates, followed by comprehensive training and personnel preparation, including 120,000 educators from the Ministry of Education tasked with conducting the primary census."

Despite efforts to track population growth, concerns remain about the long-term impact of this trend.

A Looming Crisis?

According to the UNPD, 68% of the Arab world's population resides in six of 22 countries, with Iraq being one of these countries.

Despite the Ministry of Planning's reassurances that the population increase is natural in Iraq, Social researcher Amal Al-Kabaiyshi has raised alarm bells about Iraq's escalating birth rates, warning of an imminent population explosion that could lead to a severe humanitarian crisis in the absence of adequate infrastructure and economic capabilities.

In an interview with Shafaq News Agency, Al-Kabaiyshi pointed out that despite government efforts to regulate birth rates and promote family planning policies, the increase in births has persisted over the past two decades.

"This trend necessitates a comprehensive societal approach, including heightened awareness, accessible reproductive health services, specialized healthcare centers, and a clear governmental vision prioritizing family planning."

Al-Kabaiyshi stressed the importance of effectively implementing family planning policies and allocating necessary resources to curb Iraq's high birth rate. Failure to address this issue could result in a population crisis with far-reaching social and economic ramifications in the years ahead."

Multi-Faceted Challenges

Iraq's surge in population affected various aspects of daily life, with about a quarter of the population living below the poverty line.

One of the immediate impacts of this population surge is the strain on infrastructure, particularly in densely populated areas like the capital Baghdad. Overcrowding has led to water scarcity and sanitation issues.

Economically, high birth rates exacerbate unemployment and poverty levels, especially in a landscape with limited job creation opportunities, such as the southern governorates of Maysan, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, and Basra.

This economic strain is further compounded by social issues such as early marriage, polygamy, and continued high birth rates, which place immense pressure on resources and limit opportunities for many Iraqis.

In addition, environmental degradation is a concern stemming from population growth. The increasing demand for agricultural land and water scarcity contributes to desertification and pressure on Iraq's natural resources.

Moreover, Iraq's reliance on food imports poses a significant security threat as its population grows and agricultural capacity diminishes.

Beyond these immediate challenges, there is a growing concern about the potential for social instability and conflict if the government fails to provide adequate resources and opportunities for its burgeoning population.

In this regard, economic researcher Omar Al-Halbousi expressed concerns and warned of the grave economic, social, and security challenges that could have long-lasting repercussions if not addressed promptly.

Al-Halbousi highlighted to Shafaq News the dangers posed by the annual population increase, particularly within "Iraq's mono-economy (oil exports), stagnant productive sectors, and soaring unemployment and poverty rates, currently at 40%."

Al-Halbousi criticized "the absence of a comprehensive governmental economic vision capable of revitalizing productive sectors, absorbing unemployment, and creating new job opportunities." He also urged the necessary measures for birth control to "mitigate the risks of a population explosion," which he described as a "multi-faceted danger threatening Iraq's stability."

"Redirecting public funds towards productive projects, investing in industrial and agricultural sectors, promoting private sector growth, and diversifying revenue sources is crucial to navigating Iraq's current and future economic challenges.

He stressed the importance of legislative measures to support job creation in the private sector, guarantee workers' rights, and alleviate the burden on the state.

Failure to implement these measures, he warned, "could lead to dire consequences for Iraq's economic, financial, and social well-being, exacerbated by the ongoing population growth trends."