“And January 3, 2021 is the first anniversary of the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the legendary figure who gave the Iranian leadership the ability to effectively take over Arab countries. His killing by US drone strike left a void that his successors have had a hard time filling. The Iranian leaders will not take Soleimani’s killing in stride without seeking a form of revenge that suits his level of importance.” He added.
“Also killed, in November 2020, was the father of Iran’s military nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Tehran claims Israel was responsible for this “crime,” which similarly awaits a revenge operation that the Iranian regime has no choice but to carry out.”
Kedar expect the Iranian leaders to mount an impressive military operation on January 19 in Soleimani’s, and possibly also Fakhrizadeh’s, name—one that will restore their lost honor and their longstanding status as regional bully.
“The Iranian revenge operation will not be conducted from Iranian soil but from two, possibly three, of its satellite states—Yemen, Iraq, and Syria—so as not to incriminate Tehran directly (certainly not in the eyes of US President-elect Biden) and to demonstrate Iran’s control of those countries despite longstanding American and Israeli efforts to thwart it.” He explained.
He clarified why January 19 by saying “Because that will be one day before Trump’s exit from the White House. He will not have time to put into motion any serious retaliation against Iran.”
“If the Iranian leaders are indeed aiming to mount an operation of this kind, the US, Saudi, and Israeli intelligence agencies are presumably aware of it. That is the likely reason why we have seen in recent weeks a boosting of the US presence in the Gulf. In just one month.”
“On December 24, Trump conveyed a grave warning to Tehran that it would be held responsible for any attack on an American citizen or soldier even if carried out by a Shiite militia, and called on Iranian leaders to “think it over” before instigating such an attack. On December 25, it was reported in Israel that the IDF had been placed on alert because of a possible US strike on Iran before Trump exits the White House.” He said.
“Israel fears an attack on its infrastructure facilities like the attack on the Saudi oil installations. An attack of that nature could come from Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, or Syria. It is possible that this concern explains operations in Syria in recent weeks that have been attributed to Israel. The IDF spokesperson told the Saudi Elaph website that Israel is closely monitoring Iran’s moves in Iraq and Yemen and has information about missiles and drones that Tehran is secretly developing and building in those countries.”
He classified The states of the Arabian Peninsula into three distinct groups: “Yemen and Qatar, which are Iranian satellites and serve it in every possible way; Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, which fear a confrontation that will make them a target of Iranian missiles; and Oman and Kuwait, which sit on the fence and try to reconcile between the US and Iran so as to save the combustible region from a war that would have no winners, only losers.”
“To keep its allies safe from an Iranian revenge attack, Washington presumably will not launch a military strike on Iran from any of the countries in the region, should it launch a strike at all. The B-52s—America’s strategic bombers—will take off for their Iran mission from bases in the US or from the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the US has submarines and battleships in the region, including aircraft carriers and destroyers. It is capable of hitting Iran and its proxies at any time without involving its allies, and perhaps without even taking their positions into account.”